valentine's day 4

Good thing the only thing riding on my predictions was my pride.  I was horrible. In my defense I was unable to see 33 of the nominees:  Birdman, Foxcatcher, The Imitation Game, Two Days, One Night, Wild, Still Alice, Whiplash, Song of the Sea, The Tale of Kaguya, Unbroken, Mr. Turner, The Reaper, Joanna, Our Curse, White EarthCITIZENFOUR, Finding Vivian Maier, The Salt of the Earth, Leviathan, Tangerines, Timbuktu, Wild Tales, The Bigger Picture, The Dam Keeper, Feast, Me and My Moulton, A Single Life,Aya, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp, Parvaneh, The Phone Call

So here’s the how the stats stack up:

I saw 15 of the movies nominated or about 39%

38 unique films got nominated for 25 awards

14 films won at least one award. 36% success rate.

I got 6 correct predictions:  24% success rate.

Of the films  I saw and that also won an award, but I failed to predict the correct winner, my record is a little better.  I saw 11 movies that won an award. My prediction was correct 5 times;  45% success.

Of those I haven’t seen, the only one I really, really want to see is Birdman. I’ll probably see CITIZENFOUR because it’s on TV this week. That’s a 6% success rate for “The Oscars,” as a way to drum up viewers.

(Last year I predicted about 50% of the winner, but I got to see a lot more of the films. )