Good thing the only thing riding on my predictions was my pride. I was horrible. In my defense I was unable to see 33 of the nominees: Birdman, Foxcatcher, The Imitation Game, Two Days, One Night, Wild, Still Alice, Whiplash, Song of the Sea, The Tale of Kaguya, Unbroken, Mr. Turner, The Reaper, Joanna, Our Curse, White Earth, CITIZENFOUR, Finding Vivian Maier, The Salt of the Earth, Leviathan, Tangerines, Timbuktu, Wild Tales, The Bigger Picture, The Dam Keeper, Feast, Me and My Moulton, A Single Life,Aya, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp, Parvaneh, The Phone Call
So here’s the how the stats stack up:
I saw 15 of the movies nominated or about 39%
38 unique films got nominated for 25 awards
14 films won at least one award. 36% success rate.
I got 6 correct predictions: 24% success rate.
Of the films I saw and that also won an award, but I failed to predict the correct winner, my record is a little better. I saw 11 movies that won an award. My prediction was correct 5 times; 45% success.
Of those I haven’t seen, the only one I really, really want to see is Birdman. I’ll probably see CITIZENFOUR because it’s on TV this week. That’s a 6% success rate for “The Oscars,” as a way to drum up viewers.
(Last year I predicted about 50% of the winner, but I got to see a lot more of the films. )
Conclusion supported by the stats: Come on, let me see the movies before the award show.
Maybe a dismal viewership of the Oscars this year is a direct result of the movies' late releases.
Best Picture
The Prediction: Boyhood
The Winner: Birdman
The Results: Fail
Best Actor
The Prediction: Eddie Redmayne.
The Winner: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
The Results: Success
Best Actress
The Prediction: Rosamund Pike.
The Winner: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
The Results: Fail
Best Supporting Actor
The Predition: Robert Duvall
The Winner: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
The Results: Fail
Best Supporting Actress
The Prediction: Emma Stone (Birdman)
The Winner: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
The Results: Fail
Best Animate Feature.
The Predicton: Boxtrolls.
The Winner: Big Hero 6
The Results: Fail
Best Cinematography
The Prediction: Robert Yeoman (Grand Budapest Hotel)
The Winner: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)
The Results: Fail
Best Costume Design
The Prediction: Maleficent
The Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Results: Fail
Best Director
The Prediction: Boyhood.
The Winner: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman)
The Results: Fail
Best Documentary Feature
The Prediction: Last Days in Vietnam
The Winner: CITIZENFOUR
The Results: Fail
Best Documentary Short
The Verdict: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1.
The Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
The Results: Success
Best Film Editing
The Prediction: Boyhood.
The Winner: Whiplash
The Results: Fail
Best Foreign Language Film
The Prediction: Ida
The Winner: Ida
The Results: Success
Best Makeup and Hairstyle
The Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy
The Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Results: Fail
Best Music – Origina Score
The Prediction: Alexandre Desplat.
The Winner: Alexandre Desplat (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
The Results: Success
Best Music Original Song
The Prediction I’m Not Gonna Miss You.
The Winner: Glory (Selma)
The Results: Fail
Best Production Design
The Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel.
The Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Results: Success
Best Short Film – Animated
The Prediction: Me and my Moulton.
The Winner: Feast
The Results: Fail
Best Short Film – Live Action
The Prediction: Boogaloo and Graham.
The Winner: The Phone Call
The Results: Fail
Best Sound Editing
The Predition: Interstellar.
The Winner: Whiplash
The Results: Fail
Best Sound Mixing
The Prediction: Interstellar.
The Winner: Whiplash
The Results: Fail
Best Visual Effect
The Verdict: Interstellar.
The Winner: Interstellar
The Results: Succeed
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay
The Prediction: American Sniper.
The Winner: Anthony McCarten (The Theory of Everything)
The Results: Fail
Best Writing – Original Screenplay
The Prediction: Dan Gilroy
The Winner: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman)
The Results: Fail