2015 Oscar Prediction: Epic Fail

valentine's day 4

Good thing the only thing riding on my predictions was my pride.  I was horrible. In my defense I was unable to see 33 of the nominees:  Birdman, Foxcatcher, The Imitation Game, Two Days, One Night, Wild, Still Alice, Whiplash, Song of the Sea, The Tale of Kaguya, Unbroken, Mr. Turner, The Reaper, Joanna, Our Curse, White EarthCITIZENFOUR, Finding Vivian Maier, The Salt of the Earth, Leviathan, Tangerines, Timbuktu, Wild Tales, The Bigger Picture, The Dam Keeper, Feast, Me and My Moulton, A Single Life,Aya, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp, Parvaneh, The Phone Call

So here’s the how the stats stack up:

I saw 15 of the movies nominated or about 39%

38 unique films got nominated for 25 awards

14 films won at least one award. 36% success rate.

I got 6 correct predictions:  24% success rate.

Of the films  I saw and that also won an award, but I failed to predict the correct winner, my record is a little better.  I saw 11 movies that won an award. My prediction was correct 5 times;  45% success.

Of those I haven’t seen, the only one I really, really want to see is Birdman. I’ll probably see CITIZENFOUR because it’s on TV this week. That’s a 6% success rate for “The Oscars,” as a way to drum up viewers.

(Last year I predicted about 50% of the winner, but I got to see a lot more of the films. )

Conclusion supported by the stats: Come on, let me see the movies before the award show.

Maybe a dismal viewership of the Oscars this year is a direct result of the movies' late releases.  

Best Picture

The Prediction:  Boyhood

The Winner:  Birdman

The Results:  Fail

Best Actor

The Prediction:  Eddie Redmayne.

The Winner: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

The Results:  Success

Best Actress

The Prediction Rosamund Pike.  

The Winner:  Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

The Results:  Fail

Best Supporting Actor

The Predition Robert Duvall 

The Winner:  J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

The Results:  Fail

Best Supporting Actress

The PredictionEmma Stone (Birdman) 

The Winner:  Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

The Results:  Fail

Best Animate Feature.

The Predicton Boxtrolls.

The Winner:  Big Hero 6

The Results:  Fail

Best Cinematography

The Prediction Robert Yeoman (Grand Budapest Hotel)

The Winner:  Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)

The Results:  Fail

Best Costume Design

The Prediction:   Maleficent

The Winner:  The Grand Budapest Hotel 

The Results:  Fail

Best Director

The PredictionBoyhood. 

The Winner:  Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman)

The Results:  Fail

Best Documentary Feature

The PredictionLast Days in Vietnam 


The Results:  Fail

Best Documentary Short

The Verdict Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1.

The Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

The Results:  Success

Best Film Editing

The PredictionBoyhood.  

The Winner:  Whiplash

The Results:  Fail

Best Foreign Language Film

The Prediction:  Ida 

The Winner:  Ida

The Results:  Success

Best Makeup and Hairstyle

The Prediction Guardians of the Galaxy

The Winner:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Results:  Fail

Best Music – Origina Score

The Prediction Alexandre Desplat. 

The Winner:  Alexandre Desplat (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

The Results:  Success

Best Music Original Song

The Prediction I’m Not Gonna Miss You. 

The Winner:  Glory (Selma)

The Results:  Fail

Best Production Design

The Prediction:  The Grand Budapest Hotel.

The Winner:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Results:  Success

Best Short Film – Animated

The Prediction:  Me and my Moulton. 

The Winner:  Feast

The Results:  Fail

Best Short Film – Live Action

The Prediction:  Boogaloo and Graham

The Winner:  The Phone Call

The Results:  Fail

Best Sound Editing

The Predition: Interstellar.

The Winner:  Whiplash

The Results:  Fail

Best Sound Mixing

The Prediction:   Interstellar.

The Winner:  Whiplash

The Results:  Fail

Best Visual Effect

The Verdict:   Interstellar.  

The Winner:  Interstellar

The Results:  Succeed

Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay

The Prediction:   American Sniper. 

The Winner:  Anthony McCarten (The Theory of Everything)

The Results:  Fail

Best Writing – Original Screenplay

The Prediction:   Dan Gilroy

The Winner:  Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman)

The Results:  Fail