Academy Award

2015 Oscar Prediction: Epic Fail

valentine's day 4

Good thing the only thing riding on my predictions was my pride.  I was horrible. In my defense I was unable to see 33 of the nominees:  Birdman, Foxcatcher, The Imitation Game, Two Days, One Night, Wild, Still Alice, Whiplash, Song of the Sea, The Tale of Kaguya, Unbroken, Mr. Turner, The Reaper, Joanna, Our Curse, White Earth, CITIZENFOUR, Finding Vivian Maier, The Salt of the Earth, Leviathan, Tangerines, Timbuktu, Wild Tales, The Bigger Picture, The Dam Keeper, Feast, Me and My Moulton, A Single Life,Aya, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp, Parvaneh, The Phone Call

So here’s the how the stats stack up:

I saw 15 of the movies nominated or about 39%

38 unique films got nominated for 25 awards

14 films won at least one award. 36% success rate.

I got 6 correct predictions:  24% success rate.

Of the films  I saw and that also won an award, but I failed to predict the correct winner, my record is a little better.  I saw 11 movies that won an award. My prediction was correct 5 times;  45% success.

Of those I haven’t seen, the only one I really, really want to see is Birdman. I’ll probably see CITIZENFOUR because it’s on TV this week. That’s a 6% success rate for “The Oscars,” as a way to drum up viewers.

(Last year I predicted about 50% of the winner, but I got to see a lot more of the films. )

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A Nerdy-Geeks Oscar Predictions

I fell eight short of watching all of the nominated movies I intended to watch.  Too little time, lag in OnDemand availability, and disinterest all played a part.  Disinterest in watching any movie at all, aka burn-out, and disinterest in seeing a particular film.

I do poorly with violence in films, especially torturous kinds, so “Zero Dark Thirty” is on my nix list.  “Argo,” “Flight,” and “Hitchcock,” came late to the OnDemand screen, so I must save them for post-Academy viewing.  Also left unseen are “Amour,” “Chasing Ice,” and “The Master.”  “Argo,” looked like a loads of fun; next up in the viewing queue. I could pick this film as a winner, based on the trailer alone.  But, I won’t.  That seems like cheating.  Do you think the members of the  Academy saw every single picture?  Or do you think it’s more like in high school, just vote for their friends  or because they want to be in the cool crowd and that’s who the cool people are voting for?

Enough mental meandering.  Here are my picks.

Best Picture: 

OH MY.  This is a tough list.  I loved every movie I watched on this list.  I’m going with the one that made me think about it the most after viewing.

And the nominees are:

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