I added in a couple of last-minute guesses. I realized I saw the Animated Short Film, “Paperman.” It was delightful, so I guessed it would win. Wheee! I was right. I did the same thing when I realized I saw “Searching for Sugarman.” Whee, again! “Searching for Sugarman” won Best Documentary.
It turns out I saw all of the winning films except Argo.
Okay, I got it right about half of the time: 45% (50% adjusting for the one movie that I left for viewing later.) That’s the same probability as predicting heads or tails on a coin toss. Pretty bad, you say. Wait a minute…
Moviefone, who should know their stuff, was only right 65% of the time.
“Good Morning America” got a little over a third (37.5%) of their guesses right, and only predicted winners in nine categories.
ABC got nothing correct, only guessed three categories, and got those names incorrect; naming winners for Best Performance winners. I might agree that Anne Hathaway gave the best performance, but alas, there is no prize for that.
- Neither me nor one of my sources got Best Director correct. And, I so loved “Life of Pi.” How did I miss that?
- “Moonrise Kingdom” went home empty-handed. Short shrift for sure. I will continue to recommend “Moonrise Kingdom” to young and old alike. I’m smiling just thinking about it.
- “Django Unchained” won Original Screenplay, yet “Django,” a 1966 ‘spaghetti western’ is eerily familiar: “Who was that man?”
Here’s the data:
|Category||The Black Tortoise
|Best Picture||Life of Pi||Argo||Lincoln||Lincoln||Argo|
|Supporting Actor||Christoph Waltz||Tommy Lee Jones||Tommy Lee Jones||Tommy Lee Jones||Christoph Waltz|
|Supporting Actress||Anne Hathaway||Anne Hathaway||Anne Hathaway||Anne Hathaway|
|Best Director||Steven Spielberg||Steven Spielberg||Steven Spielberg||Ang Lee|
|Best Actor||Bradley Cooper||Daniel Day Lewis||Daniel Day Lewis||Daniel Day Lewis|
|Best Actress||Jennifer Lawrence||Jennifer Lawrence||Jessica Chastain||Anne Hathaway?||Jennifer Lawrence|
|Original Screenplay||Moonrise Kingdom||Zero Dark Thirty||Zero Dark Thirty||Django Unchanged|
|Adapted Screen Play||Life of Pi||Lincoln||Lincoln||Argo|
|Animated Feature||Brave||Wreck It Ralph||Brave||Brave|
|Visual Effects||The Hobbit||Life of Pi||Life of Pi|
|Cinematography||Anna Karenina||Sky Fall||Life of Pi|
|Costume Design||Anna Karenina||Anna Karenina||Anna Karenina|
|Best Documentary||Searching for Sugarman||Searching for Sugarman||Searching for Sugarman|
|Film Editing||Silver Linings Playbook||Zero Dark Thirty||Argo|
|Make-up & Hairstyle||Hitchcock||Les Miserables||Les Miserables|
|Original Score||Life of Pi||Life of Pi|
|Production Design||Anna Karenina||Lincoln||Lincoln|
|Sound Editing||Django Unchained||Skyfall||Skyfall & Zero Dark Thirty|
|Sound Mixing||Les Miserables||Les Miserables||Les Miserables|
- A Nerdy-Geeks Oscar Predictions (theblacktortoise.com)