I added in a couple of last-minute guesses. I realized I saw the Animated Short Film, “Paperman.” It was delightful, so I guessed it would win. Wheee! I was right. I did the same thing when I realized I saw “Searching for Sugarman.” Whee, again! “Searching for Sugarman” won Best Documentary.
It turns out I saw all of the winning films except Argo.
Okay, I got it right about half of the time: 45% (50% adjusting for the one movie that I left for viewing later.) That’s the same probability as predicting heads or tails on a coin toss. Pretty bad, you say. Wait a minute…
Moviefone, who should know their stuff, was only right 65% of the time.
“Good Morning America” got a little over a third (37.5%) of their guesses right, and only predicted winners in nine categories.
ABC got nothing correct, only guessed three categories, and got those names incorrect; naming winners for Best Performance winners. I might agree that Anne Hathaway gave the best performance, but alas, there is no prize for that.
Interesting:
- Neither me nor one of my sources got Best Director correct. And, I so loved “Life of Pi.” How did I miss that?
- “Moonrise Kingdom” went home empty-handed. Short shrift for sure. I will continue to recommend “Moonrise Kingdom” to young and old alike. I’m smiling just thinking about it.
- “Django Unchained” won Original Screenplay, yet “Django,” a 1966 ‘spaghetti western’ is eerily familiar: “Who was that man?”
httphv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uA0EUIKKgec
Here’s the data:
| Category | The Black Tortoise |
Moviefone | NBC | ABC | The Academy |
| Best Picture | Life of Pi | Argo | Lincoln | Lincoln | Argo |
| Supporting Actor | Christoph Waltz | Tommy Lee Jones | Tommy Lee Jones | Tommy Lee Jones | Christoph Waltz |
| Supporting Actress | Anne Hathaway | Anne Hathaway | Anne Hathaway | Anne Hathaway | |
| Best Director | Steven Spielberg | Steven Spielberg | Steven Spielberg | Ang Lee | |
| Best Actor | Bradley Cooper | Daniel Day Lewis | Daniel Day Lewis | Daniel Day Lewis | |
| Best Actress | Jennifer Lawrence | Jennifer Lawrence | Jessica Chastain | Anne Hathaway? | Jennifer Lawrence |
| Original Screenplay | Moonrise Kingdom | Zero Dark Thirty | Zero Dark Thirty | Django Unchanged | |
| Adapted Screen Play | Life of Pi | Lincoln | Lincoln | Argo | |
| Animated Feature | Brave | Wreck It Ralph | Brave | Brave | |
| Short Animated | Paperman | Paperman | Paperman | ||
| Visual Effects | The Hobbit | Life of Pi | Life of Pi | ||
| Cinematography | Anna Karenina | Sky Fall | Life of Pi | ||
| Costume Design | Anna Karenina | Anna Karenina | Anna Karenina | ||
| Best Documentary | Searching for Sugarman | Searching for Sugarman | Searching for Sugarman | ||
| Film Editing | Silver Linings Playbook | Zero Dark Thirty | Argo | ||
| Make-up & Hairstyle | Hitchcock | Les Miserables | Les Miserables | ||
| Original Score | Life of Pi | Life of Pi | |||
| Original Song | Skyfall | Skyfall | Skyfall | ||
| Production Design | Anna Karenina | Lincoln | Lincoln | ||
| Sound Editing | Django Unchained | Skyfall | Skyfall & Zero Dark Thirty | ||
| Sound Mixing | Les Miserables | Les Miserables | Les Miserables |
Related articles
- A Nerdy-Geeks Oscar Predictions (theblacktortoise.com)
