Who Can Predict the Oscars? I’m as Good as a Coin Toss

I added in a couple of last-minute guesses.  I realized I saw the Animated Short Film, “Paperman.”  It was delightful, so I guessed it would win.  Wheee!  I was right.  I did the same thing when I realized I saw “Searching for Sugarman.”  Whee, again!  “Searching for Sugarman” won Best Documentary.

It turns out I saw all of the winning films except Argo.

Okay, I got it right about half of the  time:  45% (50% adjusting for the one movie that I left for viewing later.)  That’s the same probability as predicting heads or tails on a coin toss.  Pretty bad, you say.  Wait a minute…

Moviefone, who should know their stuff, was only right 65% of the time.

Good Morning America” got a little over a third (37.5%) of their guesses right, and only predicted winners in nine categories.

ABC got nothing correct, only guessed three categories, and got those names incorrect; naming winners for Best Performance winners.  I might agree that Anne Hathaway gave the best performance, but alas, there is no prize for that.


  • Neither me nor one of my sources got Best Director correct.  And, I so loved “Life of Pi.”  How did I miss that?
  • “Moonrise Kingdom” went home empty-handed.  Short shrift for sure.  I will continue to recommend “Moonrise Kingdom” to young and old alike.  I’m smiling just thinking about it.
  • “Django Unchained” won Original Screenplay, yet “Django,” a 1966  ‘spaghetti western’ is eerily familiar:  “Who was that man?”




Here’s the data:

Category The Black Tortoise
Moviefone NBC ABC The Academy
Best Picture Life of Pi Argo Lincoln Lincoln Argo
Supporting Actor Christoph Waltz Tommy Lee Jones Tommy Lee Jones Tommy Lee Jones Christoph Waltz
Supporting Actress Anne Hathaway Anne Hathaway Anne Hathaway Anne Hathaway
Best Director Steven Spielberg Steven Spielberg Steven Spielberg Ang Lee
Best Actor Bradley Cooper Daniel Day Lewis Daniel Day Lewis Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress Jennifer Lawrence Jennifer Lawrence Jessica Chastain Anne Hathaway? Jennifer Lawrence
Original Screenplay Moonrise Kingdom Zero Dark Thirty Zero Dark Thirty Django Unchanged
Adapted Screen Play Life of Pi Lincoln Lincoln Argo
Animated Feature Brave Wreck It Ralph Brave Brave
Short Animated Paperman Paperman Paperman
Visual Effects The Hobbit Life of Pi Life of Pi
Cinematography Anna Karenina Sky Fall Life of Pi
Costume Design Anna Karenina Anna Karenina Anna Karenina
Best Documentary Searching for Sugarman Searching for Sugarman Searching for Sugarman
Film Editing Silver Linings Playbook Zero Dark Thirty Argo
Make-up & Hairstyle Hitchcock Les Miserables Les Miserables
Original Score Life of Pi Life of Pi
Original Song Skyfall Skyfall Skyfall
Production Design Anna Karenina Lincoln Lincoln
Sound Editing Django Unchained Skyfall Skyfall & Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Mixing Les Miserables Les Miserables Les Miserables
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